Betting on live matches with Martingale

A few days ago I wrote an article about how we can use the Martingale betting system. I recommended then to turn the main method and instead of playing for little money at high odds to bet more money at significantly lower rates.

The idea is that by betting in that way the punter will achieve a higher success rate and this will lead to playing only on the first steps of the system. This is important because in this way we won’t see an increase of the stakes and betting with sums which are beyond the bank of the player.

betting with martingale

Since then, however, an idea stuck in my head. The idea is based on the same principle – to use the martingale betting system with backing the favourites. The difference is that while there is still some risk with betting on matches of strong teams – the match can start not so well or a player can receive a red card and so on, in my new proposal that risk is almost non-existent. Of course, the odds would be very low, but in contrast, the game will be more secure.
My new proposal is to bet with the Martingale betting system live on matches, where one of the teams is leading with 2 goals. This ensures that the backing team is better, the victory is near and even the fact that sometimes we can see twists, they are really quite rare.

Since the odds are pretty low when a team leads with two goals, it means that the stakes must be higher enough. At least in my opinion, it means that the system needs to be stopped when two levels of bets are made. This is because the third bet would be too big, because it has to combine the bets made so far, plus the profit. Thus, in two consecutive unsuccessful bets it’s good to stop and start over again.

My calculations show that it takes about 50 successful bets to guarantee profits even with the loss of two consecutive matches. This means that the needed calculation here is how often we can see a twist from 0:2 to some positive result. I think that certainly it is a lot less than 2 cases out of 100, which gives me confidence in this betting system.
I look forward to your comments on this topic.

F1 betting

Formula 1 is undoubtedly one of the greatest shows on four wheels we can see in the motor world. Each of the 20 races during the season gathers hundreds of thousands of fans and millions live in front of televisions. Besides all this, Formula 1 offers great opportunities for betting. In the next few paragraphs I will present my way to bet on the winner in each race.

It is important for these players to have their chances for a win on each race of the championship. This season such drivers are Mark Webber from Red Bull and Jenson Button from McLaren. If you want to risk you can try even with Felipe Massa from Ferrari, although his chances are really smaller compared with the other two.

f1 betting

Usually the odds given by the betting houses for a win on a race for each of the three drivers are in the range of 10 to 20. I bet for a win for each of these three drivers with three units from my bank. If one of them wins the first race I stop betting at all. This is because I have bet 9 % of my bank, but I have returned 30% which is 21% profit and my goal is 20% profit. If none of them wins, I continue to bet in the same way to the tenth race.

Since my goal is to win 20% of the whole bank, each winning bet in the first three races could bring me the necessary betting profit and ultimately I will achieve the goal. If none of my three contestants win in the first three races, then I would need two wins to achieve the goal.

When we reach the tenth race and I have not been able to fulfill my betting goal, I choose the most likely winner from my three drivers. Then I include the loss from the tenth races so far as a wanted profit and continue with the betting system we all know very well – Martingale. This is how I play until the rest of the season. This assured me that when my driver wins a race I could return all my money invested so far.

This betting system has a risk of losing the entire bank, but which betting system doesn’t have such a risk? However, I’ve played it in many seasons and I haven’t even reached the Martingale period. I’ve gained my desired profit long before the tenth race of the season.

A prediction for Stoke versus Swansea

The team of Stoke City hosts Swansea in a match from the sixth round of the Premier League. Both teams have presented interestingly so far in the league as Stoke began with four straight draws and was on track to make another one in the last match. However, Ashley Cole crashed them with a goal in the last minutes and brought the victory to his Chelsea.
Swansea started the season superbly. They recorded two wins in the first two matches. One of them was a 5-0 win away against QPR. However, after that the team’s game collapsed. In the next three matches Swansea made a tormented draw at home against Sunderland and consistently lost to Aston Villa and Everton.

premier league prediction

Particularly impressive was the loss from Everton at home with 0:3 as the players of Swansea were simply crushed by their opponents. It’s rare to see such superiority for one team over another in the Premier League. Everton had hard play all over the pitch, which failed completely the plan of Swansea’s manager to keep the ball as long as possible. Everton’s press was so strong that the ball was lost on the second pass from Swansea’s players.

Interestingly, now against Swansea stands even more aggressive and physically strong team. If there is something to help the players from Stoke win their games, it’s physiology. The physical strength was a major problem for the players of Swansea, so it’s hard to imagine how they would be able to handle against Stoke.

Therefore, my preference goes to the home team in this match. For me Stoke are much stronger physically than Swansea and we saw this is a serious factor for the outcome of the match. The betting houses offer the hosts as the favourite in the match, giving only 1.9 for their victory. These betting odds aren’t high enough, but ultimately there is hardly a serious football analyst, who doesn’t see the huge advantage Stoke players will have in this game.

Therefore, I predict a home win, although I wanted to be with at least 2.1, but ultimately life is not perfect, so the 1.9 should be satisfying.